A war of words has erupted between the chief ministers of
Bihar and Gujarat. Bihar's chief minister Nitish Kumar has slammed Narendra
Modi for taking potshots at the state's slow socio-economic growth. The
altercation began with Modi saying that caste politics has ruined states like
Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Hitting back, Nitish has said that Modi should look at
the conditions in his own state before criticising others.
For the last several years, Modi has been successful in projecting his
"vibrant Gujarat" as a role model of economic growth and himself as
''Vikas Purush". Though one must give due credit to Modi for his effective
skills in making projections, one must also critically analyse this
"growth story of Gujarat" based on facts and figures. Regretfully, as
one examines the facts since Modi came to power in Gujarat in 2001, the story
appears to be hollow and, at times, contrary to what is being projected.
First, about the rate of economic growth. During 1995-2000 and 2001-10, Gujarat
increased its annual rate of growth from 8.01% to 8.68%. But so is the case
with other major states such as Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Maharashtra,
Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. In fact, Gujarat was ranked second after
Rajasthan (8.34%) in the first period and third after Uttarakhand (11.81%)
and Haryana (8.95%) in the second period. What is remarkable, Bihar and Orissa, the two most
backward and poverty-stricken states, have also shown growth pick up from 4.70%
and 4.42% in the first period to 8.02% and 8.13% in the second period. Even
smaller states like Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh have
registered growth of 11.01% and 8.96%, respectively.
During 2001-04, the rate of industrial growth for Gujarat was 3.95%, and during
2005-09, it was 12.65%. In isolation, this appears to be a phenomenal jump, but
not so when compared to some other states. During these sub-periods, industrial
growth for Orissa was 6.4% and 17.53%; for Chhattisgarh 8.10% and 13.3%;
and for Uttarakhand 18.84% and 11.63%. Thus, the hitherto industrially backward states have far
surpassed Gujarat.
In FDI, too, Gujarat has
not been a leading state. During 2006-10, Gujarat signed MoUs worth Rs 5.35 lakh crore with
potential of 6.47 lakh jobs. But Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu with Rs 4.20 lakh
crore and Rs 1.63 lakh crore worth MoUs, expect about 8.63 lakh and 13.09 lakh
jobs. To top it all,Chhattisgarh and Orissa have signed MoUs worth Rs
3.61 lakh crore and Rs 2.99 lakh crore more than Gujarat without
much fanfare and Modi's much-hyped industrial summits.
In the area of
credit-deposit ratio, Gujarat is far behind other major states. In 2010,
Gujarat's share in total deposits of the scheduled commercial banks was 4.70%,
as against 5.42%, 6.20%, 6.34% and 26.60% for Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu,
Karnataka and Maharashtra, respectively. The share of Gujarat in total
credit disbursed by these commercial banks was 4.22%; while the same for
Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tami Nadu was 29.75%, 6.71% and 9.61% respectively.
The amount of per capita
deposit and per capita credit for Gujarat was Rs 37,174 and Rs 24,268;
while for Tamil Nadu, it was Rs 42,580 and Rs 47,964; Karnataka Rs 49,598 and
Rs 38,154; and Maharashtra Rs 1,10,183 and Rs 89,575. Even Kerala did better than
Gujarat with Rs 43,890 and Rs 27,912.
In terms of per capita
income (PCI), in 2011, Gujarat ranked sixth among major states with
PCI of Rs 63,996, after Haryana (Rs 92,327), Maharashtra, (Rs 83,471), Punjab
(Rs 67,473), Tamil Nadu (Rs 72,993) and Uttara-khand (Rs 68,292).
What about inclusive growth in Gujarat? Though Gujarat, with 31.8% people below the poverty line
did better than Maharashtra and Karnataka, it still lagged behind Kerala, Punjab, Himachal
Pradesh and Haryana, where poverty levels were 19.7%, 20.9%, 22.9% and
24.1%, respectively.
On three important social
indicators, viz life expectancy at birth (LEB), mean years of schooling (MYS ) and school life expectancy (SLE ), Gujarat is far behind some other states. In
Gujarat, the LEB during 2002-06 was 64.1 years and it ranked ninth among major
Indian states. In the areas of MYS
and SLE , during 2004-05, it ranked
seventh and ninth, respectively. Kerala ranked first in all three
indicators. Even
Maharashtra, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka
performed much better than Gujarat.
With respect to Human Development
Index (HDI ), Gujarat's story is
devastating. The HDI
for Gujarat, in 2008, was 0.527 and it ranked 10 {+t} {+h} among major states.
Kerala stood first (HDI : 0.790),
Himachal Pradesh scored 0.652, Punjab 0.605, Maharashtra 0.572 and Haryana
0.552. With respect to
three HDI components — income,
health and education — Gujarat does not present a shining story. In this
respect, states like Kerala took the lead in every sector, while Punjab,
Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal did better
than Gujarat.
It is found that inequality with respect to income, education and health is
higher in Gujarat than some of the major states. Shockingly, in terms of hunger — as revealed by the
'State Hunger Index 2008' — Gujarat ranked 13th among 17 big states and
worse than Orissa.
In Gujarat, the percentage
of women suffering from anaemia has risen from 46.3% in 1999 to 55.5% in 2004,
and amongst children from 74.5% to 80.1%. The conditions of dalits and women
have deteriorated during the last decade; while those of Muslims and tribals
are still worse.
Thus, Gujarat's growth story as claimed by Modi is more a myth than reality.
But it is also imperative that other states in the country make concerted
efforts to secure higher and also inclusive growth, rather than getting
enamoured with the Gujarat growth story. Also, for the people of Gujarat, it's
time for introspection and putting right efforts in the direction of making
Gujarat a truly "vibrant" state.
The writer is a
member of the Rajya Sabha and former member, Planning Commission.
From: The Times of India http://timesofindia. indiatimes.com/home/opinion/ edit-page/Gujarat-Myth-and- reality/articleshow/14032015. cms
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